nuOct 8, 2026, 15:08

Global trade growing faster than expected despite Iran war

The WTO has raised its global trade growth forecast to 3.9 percent for this year, citing resilient supply chains and significant investments in AI despite the ongoing war in Iran. While goods trade remains strong, the conflict has forced a downward revision for the services sector due to disruptions in travel and transport.

The World Trade Organization has significantly upgraded its global trade forecasts, now projecting growth of 3.9 percent for this year and 4.1 percent for 2027. Despite the ongoing war in Iran, which began in late February and effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the global market has shown unexpected resilience. This adaptation is largely attributed to adjustments in supply chains and a substantial boost provided by major investments in artificial intelligence.

However, the economic impact of the conflict remains uneven across different regions and sectors. While goods trade remains robust overall, the Middle East is facing a sharp 17 percent contraction in exports, and Europe anticipates a minor dip of 0.1 percent. Furthermore, the growth forecast for international services has been lowered to 3.3 percent for this year, as the conflict continues to disrupt global transportation and travel industries. Despite these challenges, the WTO maintains a cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming years.

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Based on reporting by nu. Translated and condensed by LocalHeadlines.

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